Sunday, January 14, 2007

U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia   U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia   Though the U.S. airstrike on potential al-Qaida targets in southern Somalia has been widely reported, the news that U.S. Special Forces troops accompanied the Ethiopian military in its invasion/intervention in Somalia should (but probably won’t) raise some eyebrows.  Though it fits into the Bush Administration’s overall policy of going after terrorists and their allies wherever they may be, it does represent an interesting escalation of American involvement in the Horn of Africa’s myriad conflicts.  Looked at one way, this intervention follows the model used in the Afghanistan invasion of 2001.  Relatively small numbers of Special Forces troops aiding and accompanying local forces.  In Afghanistan, the local forces were the Northern Alliance, in Somalia they are the Baidoa-based Transitional Government of Somalia and their Ethiopian allies.  Also, and again, to no surprise, the U.S. gave intelligence information to the Ethiopians on the locations, positions, and dispositions of their Islamist foes.   For a Bush Administration which continues to take a lot of flak over the mess in Iraq, this “Stealth Intervention” in Somalia effectively eliminates a Taliban-like force from power, while managing to evade and avoid any real notice by the American public.  Too bad, actually; Bush and his people need positive public relations in the foreign policy arena.    Keywords:  Somalia, Ethiopia, Special Forces, America, United States, Afghanistan   Source and Resource:   Pentagon Sees Move in Somalia as Blueprint- By Mark Mazzetti—NY Times Published: January 13, 2007   9:59:35 AM    comment []

	Sunday, December 31, 2006

The Conflicts dealt with by Gerald Ford, 1974-1977 The late President Gerald R. Ford entered office at a time of great turmoil in the United States and in the world.  Richard Nixon left Ford the mess of the Vietnam War, which was coming to an inglorious and futile conclusion, while the Soviets and Chinese were testing the waters by meddling in post-colonial Africa and other areas of the world.    Ford had to deal with the leftovers from the Vietnam War, while also deciding how to respond to Soviet incursions in southern Africa in the wake of Portugal’s exit from the imperial stage.  While his hands were largely tied on the Vietnam issue by the failed policies of his predecessors, Johnson and Nixon, he did have to handle a unique situation which arose in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge (French for “Cambodian Reds”), seizure in May, 1975 of the American merchant vessel the Mayaguez.  Less than two weeks after the embarrassing spectacle of American helicopters fleeing the Communist conquest of Saigon, Ford ordered American troops into combat against the Khmer Rouge.  In pitched battles on islands off the Cambodian coast, 41 American Marines and Airmen lost their lives and another 50 were wounded.  The crew of the ship was released, and the United States finally closed the book on the Indochina/Vietnam War.  See also The Mayaguez Incident.   Ford also had to deal with the fall of the Portuguese Empire in Africa, specifically; he had to respond to the turmoil in Angola, where Marxist rebels, with substantial aid from the Soviet Union and Cuba, were fighting against non-communist forces for control of the newly independent Angola.  Ford decided to order the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to arm and direct mercenaries to aid the non-communist forces.  While this decision met with quite a bit of public scorn, and the Senate voted to cut of funding for this project, Ford made the right decision to stand up to Soviet expansion in a valuable and strategic part of the world that was experiencing a power vacuum.  Read an interview with President Ford on this topic.   Given the setbacks the U.S. later experienced in the Carter years (Angola, Nicaragua, Ethiopia/Somalia, Iran, the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan), it would be interesting to speculate how a more experienced and geopolitically realistic leader like Gerald Ford would have reacted differently than the inexperienced and geopolitically naive Jimmy Carter.  Alas, that is not how history works.  Gerald Ford was a president with a strong spine and a good head.  We shall miss him! 8:12:32 PM    comment []

	Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Ethiopia-Somalia Update The latest Ethiopian-Somali War increases in intensity as the Baidoa-based Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies push towards Mogadishu.  The latest reports claim that up to a thousand Islamist fighters died, and nearly 3,000 more were wounded in this past week’s fighting.     3 Groups Prepare for Battle in Somalia—Associated Press, Dec. 26, 2006 3:02:52 PM    comment []

	Monday, December 25, 2006

Ethiopia Crosses the Line Just in time for Christmas, the low-grade warfare in Somalia between the Islamic forces and the intervening Ethiopian military escalated in a significant way.  Ethiopian forces bombed Mogadishu airport and Baledogle Airport, about 35 miles outside Mogadishu, while troops seized Belet Weyne, an important border town.  Ethiopian troops also took over the towns of Bandiradley, Adadow and Galinsor.  The Ethiopian government reported on television that the goal of the offensive was Jowhar, a town not far from Mogadishu.   Foreign Islamist fighters are also joining the fray, seeing this as another front in their jihad against the Christian West (Ethiopia is a largely Christian nation, and is allied with the U.S.)   Several questions come to mind:  Is this part of a full-scale attack intended to drive the Islamists out of Mogadishu?  How far are Ethiopia and its backers (the U.S.), willing to go?  What will Eritrea, ally of the Islamists, and blood foe of Ethiopia, going to do?  And, if the Ethiopians do take Mogadishu, will their support of the Baidoa government condemn that government in the eyes of average Somalis?  And, as the U.S. discovered in Iraq, conquering a country is a lot easier than controlling it!  How many casualties is Ethiopia willing to endure, and who will pay for this war?  Ethiopia is NOT a rich country.   Stay tuned for more information as this war expands in a big way…   Ethiopian jets bomb airports in Somalia -- By Salad Duhul, Associated Press, December 25, 2006   7:20:33 PM    comment []

	Sunday, December 10, 2006

War in Somalia: Ethiopia aids Baidoa and Puntland   The war in Somalia heats up as Ethiopia helps the Baidoa government and the separatist government of Puntland (a largely unrecognized and very much ignored would-be nation in the northern third of Somalia) beat back the Islamist forces of the Union of Islamic Courts.   It should be noted, that when Puntland first formed in the early 1990s, it fought a brief war against Islamic forces and won.   Clashes Continue in Southern Somalia--The Washington Post Saturday, December 9, 2006; 9:29 PM   Islamists and Somali Troops Exchange Fire-- By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE Published: December 10, 2006   9:35:09 PM    comment []

Chad-Central African Republic-Sudan Conflicts     A new battle between government troops and rebels in eastern Chad claims many lives, perhaps hundreds, while the Chad rebels, with aid from Sudan, maintain bases in the Central African Republic (CAR).  The CAR, with very open borders, is dealing with its own rebellion and is unable to defend its northern and eastern borders.    In the past, France has not been shy about intervening with military force in its former colonies.  While French forces are aiding the CAR government defeat its rebels, it remains to be seen what, if anything, they are doing to keep the neighboring conflicts from further engulfing the CAR.       Darfur, Chad conflicts spread to neighbor—Seattle Times, Dec. 10, 2006   Central African Rep. forces regain town --By Joseph Benamsse     Fierce battle erupts in east Chad: Heavy fighting has taken place between Chad's government troops and rebels in the east of the country.—BBC Dec. 9, 2006   9:24:11 PM    comment []

	Monday, December 04, 2006

A Look at Africa and its Wars: 12.04.06     A Look at Africa and its Wars: 12.04.06   Africa is home to several long-standing wars and conflicts, some of which have smoldered on for years, and now threaten to erupt into larger regional conflicts. Of particular concern is the arc of countries from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) in north-central Africa through Sudan to the Horn of Africa nations of Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.  As with many of the world’s conflicts in the early years of the 21st Century, the long shadow of the Global War on Terror reaches into this bloody corner of this lost continent.   Sudan: In the Sudan, warfare returned to the largely Black, Christian south for the first time since a peace agreement was implemented in 2005.  The fighting took place between the former rebels, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), and a northern (meaning Arab Muslim) militia led by Major Gen Gabriel Tang.  After the SPLA trounced the militia, Tang’s men took refuge in a Sudanese Army base at the Nile River port of Malakal.  The following day, the Sudanese Army returned with heavy weapons (tanks and artillery), and retook the town, inflicting severe damage.  Several hundred soldiers and civilians perished in the fighting.    With the ongoing war in Darfur, Sudan does not need a resurgence of the southern war.   'Hundreds killed' in Sudan battle—BBC, Nov. 30, 2006   And speaking of Darfur, the fighting there continues, as the Darfurian rebels attack the Sudanese Army and launch raids on the country’s oil supply.  This war has already taken an estimated 400,000 lives.  The UN seems helpless to act with any resolve; meanwhile Chad is increasing its aid to the Darfurians, even as Sudan aids Chadian rebels while setting the murderous Janjaweed militia upon refugee camps and towns on the Chad side of the desert border.      Sudan army suffers Darfur defeats—BBC, Oct. 17, 2006   On the positive side, the Sudan government and the Eastern Front rebel group (made up of rebels from the Beja and Rashidiya Arab groups) work to implement a new peace agreement signed in October.  This agreement ended 12 years of rebellion in the Red Sea states near the border with Eritrea.  Sudan accused Eritrea of aiding these rebel groups.    Sudan’s Interlocking Wars—BBC, May 10, 2006 Army, former rebels review eastern Sudan peace process—Sudan Tribune, Sunday Dec. 3 2006   Central African Republic: The war in the Central African Republic (CAR), which began in 2003, grew to new levels this month, with increased rebel attacks and victories, which in turn prompted overt French military intervention.  The CAR and Chad both blame Sudan for aiding rebels against their governments. French planes attack CAR rebels: French fighter planes have fired at rebels in northern Central African Republic (CAR) where thousands have fled fighting in recent weeks.—BBC, Nov. 30, 2006   Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia: Muslim Eritrea and mostly Christian Ethiopia are still facing off over their disputed border, over which they fought a very bloody and not very conclusive war (1998-2000).  Rumors and preparations for renewed war deflect both nations from addressing their real issues of poverty and economic problems.  They also appear to be waging a proxy war in Somalia, where Eritrea is believed to aid the United Islamic Courts (UIC) against the Baidoa government, which is supported by Ethiopia.  The situation in Somalia remains tense and quite anarchic, as the Ethiopian government engages in direct talks with the UIC.  Overview:  The Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia) and the North-Central region of Africa (Central African Republic, Chad, Sudan), are locked in bloody, interconnected wars which could easily escalate into a regional war to rival that Great Lakes War (Centered on the Congo, this war involved Chad, the CAR, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, and claimed several million lives).  If Sudan is indeed aiding the rebels in Chad and the CAR, France may be drawn further into the looming Sudan-Chad/CAR conflict.  If the Sudanese government continues to suffer major losses in Darfur, and/or its oil industry, (which provides the money for the military as well as money to help implement the peace deals in the South and East), the SPLA and the Eastern Front rebels may be encouraged to take up arms in a major rebellion.  Add to this scenario the possibility that Ethiopia could be dragged further into the Somalia Civil War.  This could tempt Eritrea to more aggressively aid the United Islamic Courts (UIC), prompting an Ethiopian military response along the Eritrea-Ethiopia border.  Given the strong belief in Washington and other Western capitals that al-Qaida has found new bases and new support in the parts of Somalia controlled by the UIC, and the implied American support for Ethiopia’s involvement, things could become very interesting, very soon. 10:01:24 PM    comment []

	Sunday, December 03, 2006

Ethiopia-Somali Peace Talks: Long History of Conflict Mostly Christian Ethiopia and Muslim Somalia have fought two full-fledged wars in the second half of the Twentieth Century, along with numerous border clashes (see Ethiopia-Somali War and Conflicts). Today, Ethiopian troops stand on Somali soil in support of the weak government of President Abdullahi Yusuf, a Somali warlord and long-time ally of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, is seeking to prevent the rival Somali forces of the Union of Islamic Courts from gaining control over the country. Ethiopia is supported by the United States, who fears that the Islamic Courts are a front for al-Qaida and other Islamist forces hostile to the U.S. and to the West. Ethiopian and Islamic Courts representatives met recently to hold talks aimed at preventing all-out war. The odds are long on a peaceful resolution, given the ugly history between the two nations, and the Christian vs. Muslim aspect to this issue. Ethiopians meet Somali Islamists: Ethiopia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Tekeda Alemu, has held direct talks in Djibouti with senior representatives of Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts. 1:52:18 PM    comment []

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