Thursday, February 22, 2007

A Royal Goes to War Well now, let's see what is going on with the British part of the war.  Prime Minister Tony Blair announces that Britain will begin withdrawing her troops, while the military announces that Prince Harry will deploy to Iraq with his army unit.   While the media remind us that Britain’s royals have served in, and often led, the English/British military in wartime, it rarely mentions that the current war is but the latest of a long string of British wars in Iraq.  Not counting  World War One, in which a British military expedition failed miserably against the Ottomans (who then ruled Iraq), Britain has now fought in five wars/conflicts in Iraq (not counting Britain’s efforts to put down intermittent Kurdish rebellions in the Iraqi north).   For a list of Anglo-Iraqi Wars, see  http://www.historyguy.com/anglo-iraq_wars.html   Oh, and we do wish Harry luck in Basra.  Pity poor Tony Blair if the Queen’s grandson is killed or maimed in a war that he has already said Britain will eventually leave behind. 7:58:09 PM    comment []

	Monday, February 19, 2007

Yemen: Old front in the War on Terror Yemen steps up its war against Islamic rebels.    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070220/ap_on_re_mi_ea/yemen_rebels 9:39:08 PM    comment []

	Sunday, January 14, 2007

U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia   U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia   Though the U.S. airstrike on potential al-Qaida targets in southern Somalia has been widely reported, the news that U.S. Special Forces troops accompanied the Ethiopian military in its invasion/intervention in Somalia should (but probably won’t) raise some eyebrows.  Though it fits into the Bush Administration’s overall policy of going after terrorists and their allies wherever they may be, it does represent an interesting escalation of American involvement in the Horn of Africa’s myriad conflicts.  Looked at one way, this intervention follows the model used in the Afghanistan invasion of 2001.  Relatively small numbers of Special Forces troops aiding and accompanying local forces.  In Afghanistan, the local forces were the Northern Alliance, in Somalia they are the Baidoa-based Transitional Government of Somalia and their Ethiopian allies.  Also, and again, to no surprise, the U.S. gave intelligence information to the Ethiopians on the locations, positions, and dispositions of their Islamist foes.   For a Bush Administration which continues to take a lot of flak over the mess in Iraq, this “Stealth Intervention” in Somalia effectively eliminates a Taliban-like force from power, while managing to evade and avoid any real notice by the American public.  Too bad, actually; Bush and his people need positive public relations in the foreign policy arena.    Keywords:  Somalia, Ethiopia, Special Forces, America, United States, Afghanistan   Source and Resource:   Pentagon Sees Move in Somalia as Blueprint- By Mark Mazzetti—NY Times Published: January 13, 2007   9:59:35 AM    comment []

	Sunday, December 31, 2006

The Conflicts dealt with by Gerald Ford, 1974-1977 The late President Gerald R. Ford entered office at a time of great turmoil in the United States and in the world.  Richard Nixon left Ford the mess of the Vietnam War, which was coming to an inglorious and futile conclusion, while the Soviets and Chinese were testing the waters by meddling in post-colonial Africa and other areas of the world.    Ford had to deal with the leftovers from the Vietnam War, while also deciding how to respond to Soviet incursions in southern Africa in the wake of Portugal’s exit from the imperial stage.  While his hands were largely tied on the Vietnam issue by the failed policies of his predecessors, Johnson and Nixon, he did have to handle a unique situation which arose in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge (French for “Cambodian Reds”), seizure in May, 1975 of the American merchant vessel the Mayaguez.  Less than two weeks after the embarrassing spectacle of American helicopters fleeing the Communist conquest of Saigon, Ford ordered American troops into combat against the Khmer Rouge.  In pitched battles on islands off the Cambodian coast, 41 American Marines and Airmen lost their lives and another 50 were wounded.  The crew of the ship was released, and the United States finally closed the book on the Indochina/Vietnam War.  See also The Mayaguez Incident.   Ford also had to deal with the fall of the Portuguese Empire in Africa, specifically; he had to respond to the turmoil in Angola, where Marxist rebels, with substantial aid from the Soviet Union and Cuba, were fighting against non-communist forces for control of the newly independent Angola.  Ford decided to order the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to arm and direct mercenaries to aid the non-communist forces.  While this decision met with quite a bit of public scorn, and the Senate voted to cut of funding for this project, Ford made the right decision to stand up to Soviet expansion in a valuable and strategic part of the world that was experiencing a power vacuum.  Read an interview with President Ford on this topic.   Given the setbacks the U.S. later experienced in the Carter years (Angola, Nicaragua, Ethiopia/Somalia, Iran, the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan), it would be interesting to speculate how a more experienced and geopolitically realistic leader like Gerald Ford would have reacted differently than the inexperienced and geopolitically naive Jimmy Carter.  Alas, that is not how history works.  Gerald Ford was a president with a strong spine and a good head.  We shall miss him! 8:12:32 PM    comment []

	Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Ethiopia-Somalia Update The latest Ethiopian-Somali War increases in intensity as the Baidoa-based Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies push towards Mogadishu.  The latest reports claim that up to a thousand Islamist fighters died, and nearly 3,000 more were wounded in this past week’s fighting.     3 Groups Prepare for Battle in Somalia—Associated Press, Dec. 26, 2006 3:02:52 PM    comment []

	Monday, December 25, 2006

Ethiopia Crosses the Line Just in time for Christmas, the low-grade warfare in Somalia between the Islamic forces and the intervening Ethiopian military escalated in a significant way.  Ethiopian forces bombed Mogadishu airport and Baledogle Airport, about 35 miles outside Mogadishu, while troops seized Belet Weyne, an important border town.  Ethiopian troops also took over the towns of Bandiradley, Adadow and Galinsor.  The Ethiopian government reported on television that the goal of the offensive was Jowhar, a town not far from Mogadishu.   Foreign Islamist fighters are also joining the fray, seeing this as another front in their jihad against the Christian West (Ethiopia is a largely Christian nation, and is allied with the U.S.)   Several questions come to mind:  Is this part of a full-scale attack intended to drive the Islamists out of Mogadishu?  How far are Ethiopia and its backers (the U.S.), willing to go?  What will Eritrea, ally of the Islamists, and blood foe of Ethiopia, going to do?  And, if the Ethiopians do take Mogadishu, will their support of the Baidoa government condemn that government in the eyes of average Somalis?  And, as the U.S. discovered in Iraq, conquering a country is a lot easier than controlling it!  How many casualties is Ethiopia willing to endure, and who will pay for this war?  Ethiopia is NOT a rich country.   Stay tuned for more information as this war expands in a big way…   Ethiopian jets bomb airports in Somalia -- By Salad Duhul, Associated Press, December 25, 2006   7:20:33 PM    comment []

	Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Nuclear War is Bad for the Environment...   …and for humans, dogs, cats, cows, and just about everything else.  Though it could end up solving global warming, at least for a while.  Seriously though, several recent news stories point out the increasing dangers associated with the nearly unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons in an increasingly unstable world.    What exactly are the possible scenarios for small-scale regional nuclear conflicts?  Those are exactly the type of wars that the scientists at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco warned about. Even a Small Nuclear War Could Change the World: New Study Shows Distant and Minor Nuclear Blasts Could Cause a Global 'Nuclear Winter'—ABC News Dec. 12, 2006   Megacities, global warming make nuclear war even more dangerousNow that civilization has moved to cities, we are easier bombing targets, say experts. -- By Michael Kanellos Staff Writer, CNET News.com, Dec. 11, 2006     The War and Conflict Journal sees several realistic scenarios that could occur within the next few years.   Scenario 1:  Nuclear North Korea rolls the dice and makes a go at taking over South Korea.  The President of South Korea does not appear too worried though.  He says that despite the North’s nuclear weaponry, the South would still prevail.  Is the man a fool, or has South Korea have a nuclear ace up its sleeve? Roh says nuclear North Korea no match in warfare to the South   Scenario 2:  Iran and Israel duke it out with nukes.  Iran’s President is famous for periodically threatening to wipe Israel off of the map, but Israel’s Prime Minister recently all but admitted that Israel has nuclear weapons (a well-known fact, but Israel consistently has not admitted such).  These two nations could easily wipe out the entire Middle East and its oil supplies (once Iran creates those weapons). ISRAEL NUKE COMMENT SPARKS CONTROVERSY History Guy: Israel-Lebanon/Hezbollah War (2006)     Scenario 3:  The U.S. (with or without allies), tries to take out Iran’s nuclear processing facilities.  To take out the hardened underground sites, the U.S. may resort to “mini-nukes,” or nuclear “bunker-busting” weapons.  Messy. Attack on Iran: Pre-emptive Nuclear War History Guy: Iran-U.S. Hostage Crisis (1979-1981)       Scenario 4:  India and Pakistan, who each possess at least 50 nuclear weapons, fight another war and go nuclear.  The two old enemies have been talking peace lately, but with an active Islamist insurgency in Indian-ruled Kashmir, and very important elements of the Pakistani military and security forces backing the insurgency, the possibility of a future war that could go nuclear is ever present. India's Strategic Environment and the Role of Military Power—Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 22, 2006   History Guy: Wars of India History Guy: Indo-Pakistani Wars                 Scenario 4.1:  A coup topples President Mushareff of Pakistan and the new government is openly pro-Taliban, pro-al-Qaida, and calls for holy war to free Kashmir from India.  The U.S., Britain, and India decide to take out Pakistan’s nuclear capability.  U.S. and British special forces try to seize the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, but miss a few, while the Indian military surges across the border to end the “Pakistani problem” once and for all.  Use your imagination on how a pro-Taliban Pakistani government would react to such an attack…  NOTE: There supposedly WAS such an Anglo-American plan to seize Pakistan’s nukes right after 9/11 when it was not clear which way Mushareff would go when told to choose between continuing his support of the Taliban and aligning with the West. U.S. Worries about Pakistan Nuclear Arms—Washington Post, Nov. 4, 2001 Bombing Pakistan Back to the Stone Age by Eric Margolis               Scenario 4.2:  India and China re-fight their 1962 border war, except this time they both have nukes.  Even though they have been talking nicely to each other lately, India has made no secret of its concern that China’s recent military expansion is up to three times a large as publicly acknowledged by Beijing.   Other scenarios exist of course, but in terms of the most likely wars between nations, these are the most likely.  And you thought the end of the Cold War made the world a safer place, didn’t you?    9:12:21 PM    comment []

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