War and Conflict Journal: World Hotspots

A Royal Goes to War

Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:58:09 GMT

Well now, let's see what is going on with the British part of the war. Prime Minister Tony Blair announces that Britain will begin withdrawing her troops, while the military announces that Prince Harry will deploy to Iraq with his army unit.

While the media remind us that Britain’s royals have served in, and often led, the English/British military in wartime, it rarely mentions that the current war is but the latest of a long string of British wars in Iraq. Not counting World War One, in which a British military expedition failed miserably against the Ottomans (who then ruled Iraq), Britain has now fought in five wars/conflicts in Iraq (not counting Britain’s efforts to put down intermittent Kurdish rebellions in the Iraqi north).

For a list of Anglo-Iraqi Wars, see http://www.historyguy.com/anglo-iraq_wars.html

Oh, and we do wish Harry luck in Basra. Pity poor Tony Blair if the Queen’s grandson is killed or maimed in a war that he has already said Britain will eventually leave behind.

Yemen: Old front in the War on Terror

Tue, 20 Feb 2007 05:39:08 GMT

Yemen steps up its war against Islamic rebels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070220/ap_on_re_mi_ea/yemen_rebels

U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia

Sun, 14 Jan 2007 17:59:35 GMT

U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia

Though the U.S. airstrike on potential al-Qaida targets in southern Somalia has been widely reported, the news that U.S. Special Forces troops accompanied the Ethiopian military in its invasion/intervention in Somalia should (but probably won’t) raise some eyebrows. Though it fits into the Bush Administration’s overall policy of going after terrorists and their allies wherever they may be, it does represent an interesting escalation of American involvement in the Horn of Africa’s myriad conflicts. Looked at one way, this intervention follows the model used in the Afghanistan invasion of 2001. Relatively small numbers of Special Forces troops aiding and accompanying local forces. In Afghanistan, the local forces were the Northern Alliance, in Somalia they are the Baidoa-based Transitional Government of Somalia and their Ethiopian allies. Also, and again, to no surprise, the U.S. gave intelligence information to the Ethiopians on the locations, positions, and dispositions of their Islamist foes.

For a Bush Administration which continues to take a lot of flak over the mess in Iraq, this “Stealth Intervention” in Somalia effectively eliminates a Taliban-like force from power, while managing to evade and avoid any real notice by the American public. Too bad, actually; Bush and his people need positive public relations in the foreign policy arena.

Keywords: Somalia, Ethiopia, Special Forces, America, United States, Afghanistan

Source and Resource:

Pentagon Sees Move in Somalia as Blueprint- By Mark Mazzetti—NY Times

Published: January 13, 2007

The Conflicts dealt with by Gerald Ford, 1974-1977

Mon, 01 Jan 2007 04:12:32 GMT

The late President Gerald R. Ford entered office at a time of great turmoil in the United States and in the world. Richard Nixon left Ford the mess of the Vietnam War, which was coming to an inglorious and futile conclusion, while the Soviets and Chinese were testing the waters by meddling in post-colonial Africa and other areas of the world.

Ford had to deal with the leftovers from the Vietnam War, while also deciding how to respond to Soviet incursions in southern Africa in the wake of Portugal’s exit from the imperial stage. While his hands were largely tied on the Vietnam issue by the failed policies of his predecessors, Johnson and Nixon, he did have to handle a unique situation which arose in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge (French for “Cambodian Reds”), seizure in May, 1975 of the American merchant vessel the Mayaguez. Less than two weeks after the embarrassing spectacle of American helicopters fleeing the Communist conquest of Saigon, Ford ordered American troops into combat against the Khmer Rouge. In pitched battles on islands off the Cambodian coast, 41 American Marines and Airmen lost their lives and another 50 were wounded. The crew of the ship was released, and the United States finally closed the book on the Indochina/Vietnam War. See also The Mayaguez Incident.

Ford also had to deal with the fall of the Portuguese Empire in Africa, specifically; he had to respond to the turmoil in Angola, where Marxist rebels, with substantial aid from the Soviet Union and Cuba, were fighting against non-communist forces for control of the newly independent Angola. Ford decided to order the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to arm and direct mercenaries to aid the non-communist forces. While this decision met with quite a bit of public scorn, and the Senate voted to cut of funding for this project, Ford made the right decision to stand up to Soviet expansion in a valuable and strategic part of the world that was experiencing a power vacuum. Read an interview with President Ford on this topic.

Given the setbacks the U.S. later experienced in the Carter years (Angola, Nicaragua, Ethiopia/Somalia, Iran, the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan), it would be interesting to speculate how a more experienced and geopolitically realistic leader like Gerald Ford would have reacted differently than the inexperienced and geopolitically naive Jimmy Carter. Alas, that is not how history works. Gerald Ford was a president with a strong spine and a good head. We shall miss him!

Ethiopia-Somalia Update

Tue, 26 Dec 2006 23:02:52 GMT

The latest Ethiopian-Somali War increases in intensity as the Baidoa-based Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies push towards Mogadishu. The latest reports claim that up to a thousand Islamist fighters died, and nearly 3,000 more were wounded in this past week’s fighting.

3 Groups Prepare for Battle in Somalia—Associated Press, Dec. 26, 2006

Ethiopia Crosses the Line

Tue, 26 Dec 2006 03:20:33 GMT

Just in time for Christmas, the low-grade warfare in Somalia between the Islamic forces and the intervening Ethiopian military escalated in a significant way. Ethiopian forces bombed Mogadishu airport and Baledogle Airport, about 35 miles outside Mogadishu, while troops seized Belet Weyne, an important border town. Ethiopian troops also took over the towns of Bandiradley, Adadow and Galinsor. The Ethiopian government reported on television that the goal of the offensive was Jowhar, a town not far from Mogadishu.

Foreign Islamist fighters are also joining the fray, seeing this as another front in their jihad against the Christian West (Ethiopia is a largely Christian nation, and is allied with the U.S.)

Several questions come to mind: Is this part of a full-scale attack intended to drive the Islamists out of Mogadishu? How far are Ethiopia and its backers (the U.S.), willing to go? What will Eritrea, ally of the Islamists, and blood foe of Ethiopia, going to do? And, if the Ethiopians do take Mogadishu, will their support of the Baidoa government condemn that government in the eyes of average Somalis? And, as the U.S. discovered in Iraq, conquering a country is a lot easier than controlling it! How many casualties is Ethiopia willing to endure, and who will pay for this war? Ethiopia is NOT a rich country.

Stay tuned for more information as this war expands in a big way…

Ethiopian jets bomb airports in Somalia -- By Salad Duhul, Associated Press, December 25, 2006

Nuclear War is Bad for the Environment...

Wed, 13 Dec 2006 05:12:21 GMT

…and for humans, dogs, cats, cows, and just about everything else. Though it could end up solving global warming, at least for a while. Seriously though, several recent news stories point out the increasing dangers associated with the nearly unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons in an increasingly unstable world.

What exactly are the possible scenarios for small-scale regional nuclear conflicts? Those are exactly the type of wars that the scientists at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco warned about.

Even a Small Nuclear War Could Change the World: New Study Shows Distant and Minor Nuclear Blasts Could Cause a Global 'Nuclear Winter'—ABC News Dec. 12, 2006

Megacities, global warming make nuclear war even more dangerous-- By Michael Kanellos
Staff Writer, CNET News.com, Dec. 11, 2006

The War and Conflict Journal sees several realistic scenarios that could occur within the next few years.

Scenario 1: Nuclear North Korea rolls the dice and makes a go at taking over South Korea. The President of South Korea does not appear too worried though. He says that despite the North’s nuclear weaponry, the South would still prevail. Is the man a fool, or has South Korea have a nuclear ace up its sleeve?

Roh says nuclear North Korea no match in warfare to the South

Scenario 2: Iran and Israel duke it out with nukes. Iran’s President is famous for periodically threatening to wipe Israel off of the map, but Israel’s Prime Minister recently all but admitted that Israel has nuclear weapons (a well-known fact, but Israel consistently has not admitted such). These two nations could easily wipe out the entire Middle East and its oil supplies (once Iran creates those weapons).

ISRAEL NUKE COMMENT SPARKS CONTROVERSY

History Guy: Israel-Lebanon/Hezbollah War (2006)

Scenario 3: The U.S. (with or without allies), tries to take out Iran’s nuclear processing facilities. To take out the hardened underground sites, the U.S. may resort to “mini-nukes,” or nuclear “bunker-busting” weapons. Messy.

Attack on Iran: Pre-emptive Nuclear War

History Guy: Iran-U.S. Hostage Crisis (1979-1981)

Scenario 4: India and Pakistan, who each possess at least 50 nuclear weapons, fight another war and go nuclear. The two old enemies have been talking peace lately, but with an active Islamist insurgency in Indian-ruled Kashmir, and very important elements of the Pakistani military and security forces backing the insurgency, the possibility of a future war that could go nuclear is ever present.

India's Strategic Environment and the Role of Military Power—Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 22, 2006

History Guy: Wars of India

History Guy: Indo-Pakistani Wars

Scenario 4.1: A coup topples President Mushareff of Pakistan and the new government is openly pro-Taliban, pro-al-Qaida, and calls for holy war to free Kashmir from India. The U.S., Britain, and India decide to take out Pakistan’s nuclear capability. U.S. and British special forces try to seize the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, but miss a few, while the Indian military surges across the border to end the “Pakistani problem” once and for all. Use your imagination on how a pro-Taliban Pakistani government would react to such an attack… NOTE: There supposedly WAS such an Anglo-American plan to seize Pakistan’s nukes right after 9/11 when it was not clear which way Mushareff would go when told to choose between continuing his support of the Taliban and aligning with the West.

U.S. Worries about Pakistan Nuclear Arms—Washington Post, Nov. 4, 2001

Bombing Pakistan Back to the Stone Age by Eric Margolis

Scenario 4.2: India and China re-fight their 1962 border war, except this time they both have nukes. Even though they have been talking nicely to each other lately, India has made no secret of its concern that China’s recent military expansion is up to three times a large as publicly acknowledged by Beijing.

Other scenarios exist of course, but in terms of the most likely wars between nations, these are the most likely. And you thought the end of the Cold War made the world a safer place, didn’t you?

War in Somalia: Ethiopia aids Baidoa and Puntland

Mon, 11 Dec 2006 05:35:09 GMT

The war in Somalia heats up as Ethiopia helps the Baidoa government and the separatist government of Puntland (a largely unrecognized and very much ignored would-be nation in the northern third of Somalia) beat back the Islamist forces of the Union of Islamic Courts.

It should be noted, that when Puntland first formed in the early 1990s, it fought a brief war against Islamic forces and won.

Clashes Continue in Southern Somalia--The Washington Post
Saturday, December 9, 2006; 9:29 PM

Islamists and Somali Troops Exchange Fire-- By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Published: December 10, 2006

Chad-Central African Republic-Sudan Conflicts

Mon, 11 Dec 2006 05:24:11 GMT

A new battle between government troops and rebels in eastern Chad claims many lives, perhaps hundreds, while the Chad rebels, with aid from Sudan, maintain bases in the Central African Republic (CAR). The CAR, with very open borders, is dealing with its own rebellion and is unable to defend its northern and eastern borders.

In the past, France has not been shy about intervening with military force in its former colonies. While French forces are aiding the CAR government defeat its rebels, it remains to be seen what, if anything, they are doing to keep the neighboring conflicts from further engulfing the CAR.

Darfur, Chad conflicts spread to neighbor—Seattle Times, Dec. 10, 2006

Central African Rep. forces regain town --By Joseph Benamsse

Fierce battle erupts in east Chad: Heavy fighting has taken place between Chad's government troops and rebels in the east of the country.—BBC Dec. 9, 2006

A Look at Africa and its Wars: 12.04.06

Tue, 05 Dec 2006 06:01:24 GMT

A Look at Africa and its Wars: 12.04.06

Africa is home to several long-standing wars and conflicts, some of which have smoldered on for years, and now threaten to erupt into larger regional conflicts. Of particular concern is the arc of countries from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) in north-central Africa through Sudan to the Horn of Africa nations of Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. As with many of the world’s conflicts in the early years of the 21^st Century, the long shadow of the Global War on Terror reaches into this bloody corner of this lost continent.

Sudan:

In the Sudan, warfare returned to the largely Black, Christian south for the first time since a peace agreement was implemented in 2005. The fighting took place between the former rebels, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), and a northern (meaning Arab Muslim) militia led by Major Gen Gabriel Tang. After the SPLA trounced the militia, Tang’s men took refuge in a Sudanese Army base at the Nile River port of Malakal. The following day, the Sudanese Army returned with heavy weapons (tanks and artillery), and retook the town, inflicting severe damage. Several hundred soldiers and civilians perished in the fighting.

With the ongoing war in Darfur, Sudan does not need a resurgence of the southern war.

'Hundreds killed' in Sudan battle—BBC, Nov. 30, 2006

And speaking of Darfur, the fighting there continues, as the Darfurian rebels attack the Sudanese Army and launch raids on the country’s oil supply. This war has already taken an estimated 400,000 lives. The UN seems helpless to act with any resolve; meanwhile Chad is increasing its aid to the Darfurians, even as Sudan aids Chadian rebels while setting the murderous Janjaweed militia upon refugee camps and towns on the Chad side of the desert border.

Sudan army suffers Darfur defeats—BBC, Oct. 17, 2006

On the positive side, the Sudan government and the Eastern Front rebel group (made up of rebels from the Beja and Rashidiya Arab groups) work to implement a new peace agreement signed in October. This agreement ended 12 years of rebellion in the Red Sea states near the border with Eritrea. Sudan accused Eritrea of aiding these rebel groups.

Sudan’s Interlocking Wars—BBC, May 10, 2006

Army, former rebels review eastern Sudan peace process—Sudan Tribune, Sunday Dec. 3 2006

Central African Republic:

The war in the Central African Republic (CAR), which began in 2003, grew to new levels this month, with increased rebel attacks and victories, which in turn prompted overt French military intervention. The CAR and Chad both blame Sudan for aiding rebels against their governments.

French planes attack CAR rebels: French fighter planes have fired at rebels in northern Central African Republic (CAR) where thousands have fled fighting in recent weeks.—BBC, Nov. 30, 2006

Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia:

Muslim Eritrea and mostly Christian Ethiopia are still facing off over their disputed border, over which they fought a very bloody and not very conclusive war (1998-2000). Rumors and preparations for renewed war deflect both nations from addressing their real issues of poverty and economic problems. They also appear to be waging a proxy war in Somalia, where Eritrea is believed to aid the United Islamic Courts (UIC) against the Baidoa government, which is supported by Ethiopia. The situation in Somalia remains tense and quite anarchic, as the Ethiopian government engages in direct talks with the UIC.

Overview:

The Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia) and the North-Central region of Africa (Central African Republic, Chad, Sudan), are locked in bloody, interconnected wars which could easily escalate into a regional war to rival that Great Lakes War (Centered on the Congo, this war involved Chad, the CAR, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, and claimed several million lives). If Sudan is indeed aiding the rebels in Chad and the CAR, France may be drawn further into the looming Sudan-Chad/CAR conflict. If the Sudanese government continues to suffer major losses in Darfur, and/or its oil industry, (which provides the money for the military as well as money to help implement the peace deals in the South and East), the SPLA and the Eastern Front rebels may be encouraged to take up arms in a major rebellion. Add to this scenario the possibility that Ethiopia could be dragged further into the Somalia Civil War. This could tempt Eritrea to more aggressively aid the United Islamic Courts (UIC), prompting an Ethiopian military response along the Eritrea-Ethiopia border. Given the strong belief in Washington and other Western capitals that al-Qaida has found new bases and new support in the parts of Somalia controlled by the UIC, and the implied American support for Ethiopia’s involvement, things could become very interesting, very soon.

A New Lebanese Civil War is Brewing

Sun, 03 Dec 2006 22:48:42 GMT

Lebanon's crisis continues to worsen as Hezbollah and its allies stage huge rallies in Beirut, seeking the overthrow of the government. Unlike the 1975-1990 Civil War which pitted Christians against Muslims, the current crisis splits the Muslim and Christian communities. Pro-government forces include the Sunni faction led by the son of assassinated Rafik Hariri, and the Christian faction led by the Gemayal family, who lost a son, Pierre Gemayal, when he was assassinated recently. The anti-government forces include Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, Amal, as well as Christians led by General Aoun.

The protests claimed a life on Sunday Dec. 3, as one man died in a clash between Sunni and Shiite groups.

Also of interest is the recent (over the past year), doubling of the Lebanese Army, as it takes in more Christian and Sunni recruits. This expansion is funded by the Sunni leaders of the United Arab Emirates, who seek to counteract the rise of Shiite power.

It looks like another Lebanese Civil War is brewing. More reports to follow...

Ethiopia-Somali Peace Talks: Long History of Conflict

Sun, 03 Dec 2006 21:52:18 GMT

Mostly Christian Ethiopia and Muslim Somalia have fought two full-fledged wars in the second half of the Twentieth Century, along with numerous border clashes (see Ethiopia-Somali War and Conflicts). Today, Ethiopian troops stand on Somali soil in support of the weak government of President Abdullahi Yusuf, a Somali warlord and long-time ally of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, is seeking to prevent the rival Somali forces of the Union of Islamic Courts from gaining control over the country. Ethiopia is supported by the United States, who fears that the Islamic Courts are a front for al-Qaida and other Islamist forces hostile to the U.S. and to the West. Ethiopian and Islamic Courts representatives met recently to hold talks aimed at preventing all-out war. The odds are long on a peaceful resolution, given the ugly history between the two nations, and the Christian vs. Muslim aspect to this issue. Ethiopians meet Somali Islamists: Ethiopia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Tekeda Alemu, has held direct talks in Djibouti with senior representatives of Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts.