Israeli Tourist Bus
Bombing on July 18, 2012, killed six
Israelis.
Iran
War
For the past
several years, the possibility of a war involving Iran
against one or more Western nations has remained within
the realm of possibility. Iran's quest for nuclear power,
and, many experts believe, a goal of acquiring nuclear
weapons, has worried many nations.
On July 18,
2012, a terrorist attack on a bus full of Israeli
tourists in Bulgaria may have given Israel more than
enough excuse to attack Iran. Recent tensions between
Israel, Iran, and the United States, have caused much
speculation as to whether an attack on Iran, which is
developing a nuclear program, will occur soon. Iran has
blamed Israel for assassinations of Iranian nuclear
scientists and for cyber-attacks on nuclear facilities.
Iran and Israel have a very harsh history of hostile
relations, with Iran conducting terror attacks on
Israelis in the past, arming Israeli enemies such as
Hezbollah and Hamas, and for supporting the Assad regime
in Syria. Israel claims that Iran's nascent nuclear
program's end goal is to develop nuclear weapons that
would be used on Israel.
Given all this
recent tension, why would Iran strike at Israeli targets
now? One theory is that a war with Israel would detract
pro-democracy activists in Iran and strengthen the
current regime. Another theory is that the United States
and other Western allies would be able to convince Israel
to not attack now. Or, this is a ploy by factions within
Iran (i.e. the Revolutionary Guards) to discredit other
factions of the regime.
Whatever the
reasons for the Iranian attack, it is clear that if
Israel truly wanted a Cassus Belli (a cause for war),
they now have it.
Nations that
may attack Iran over the Nuclear Issue:
--The
United States and its traditional allies (Britain,
France, Germany, etc.) are increasingly worried about
a nuclear Iran, especially given the tense
relationship Iran has with most Western nations since
the Iranian Revolution of the late 1970s. Ever since
President Bush declared that Iran was part of an "Axis
of Evil," the threat of conflict increased. It is
believed that the election of Barack Obama as
president of the United States has lowered, but not
eliminated, the possibility of a war between Iran and
the U.S.
--Israel,
which is the world's only Jewish nation, has a long
history of conflict with the Muslim world, and the
current president of Iran has made several
anti-Semitic comments, and has indicated that he does
not believe Israel should exist. Israelis are
justifiably worried that Iran's President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons in
order to destroy Israel and kill millions of
Jews.
Is
Israel Preparing For An Iran War?
--Conservative
Arab nations, such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and
the Gulf States. While it is very unlikely that any of
the Arab nations would attack Iran, they may very well
aid and abet any attack by the West and/or Israel.
Historically Persian Iran has been in conflict with
the Arab nations. This is partly due to the fact that
Iran is dominated by the Shiite sect of Islam, while
most Arab nations are controlled by the majority Sunni
sect of Islam.
Below are
new accounts related to the tensions between Iran and
other nations that may lead to the feared Iran
War.
Events took a
serious turn during the Pittsburgh Summit of Western
Industrialized Nations (The G-20) on September 25, 2009.
At the G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh, President Obama, along
with the leaders of Britain and France, announced the
existence of a secret Iranian nuclear facility inside a
mountain about a hundred miles south of
Tehran.
The information
revealed by the Western leaders came from spies on the
ground in Iran, as well as spy satellites, revealing that
Iran has a secret uranium enrichment plant deep inside a
mountain. In response to this news, the Iranian
government said they would allow United Nations
inspectors access to this newly revealed Iranian nuclear
facility. The timing of the news is interesting, given
that direct talks between the West and Iran over the
nuclear issue were scheduled to start on October 1,
2009.
Obama,
Sarkozy, and Brown on Iranian Nuclear
Facility
Even Russia and
China joined in, though in a milder sense, to the
international sense of frustration brought on by the
apparant Iranian deception involved in keeping this
nuclear facility secret.
Parallel to the
developments around the nuclear site, news that Iran's
Revolutionary Guards planned a missile defense test that
happened to coincide with the Jewish Yom Kippur religious
holiday, caused concern in Israel.
Ongoing
Ethnic Unrest:
Iran is far
from a homogenous nation. The Islamic Republic has many
ethnic and religious minority groups, and many of them
chafe under Tehran's rule. The Baluchis of southeastern
Iran (like their ethnic kin across the border in
Pakistani Baluchistan), want freedom from the central
government, and are conducting a guerrilla/terrorist war
to achieve their goals.
Iran's ethnic
and political unrest escalated on October 17, 2009, with
a suicide bombing that killed at least five commanders of
Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The
bombings also killed and wounded dozens of others left
dead and injured in two the restive Baluchi region of
near Iran's southeastern frontier with
Pakistan.
The coordinated
suicide bomb attacks mark an escalation in hostilities
between Iran's leadership and one of the nation's many
restive ethnic and religious minorities, in this case the
Baluchis. Many terrorist attacks, mostly directed at the
Iranian military and at the Revolutionary Guard have
plagued Iran's southeastern region, Sistan-Baluchistan,
and in April the government put the elite but brutal
Revolutionary Guards Corps in control of security in the
Baluchi region in an effort to stop the escalating
violence.
Iran,
predictably, has accused its foreign enemies of
supporting the insurgents in the past, and repeated that
charge the day after the latest attack. By midday, news
reports from Iran said that 31 people were killed and at
least 28 injured.
Iranian
Weapons to Hezbollah
In early
November, 2009, Israeli forces seized a cargo ship
containing large amounts of weapons supplied by Iran to
arm Israel's Lebanese enemies, Hezbollah.
Israel
and Hezbollah fought a month-long
war in
the summer of 2006.
Iranian War
Games
Iran held war
games in late November, 2009, claiming that these
military exercises were preparation to repel a possible
Israeli attack. Iran's war games caused a slight increase
in world oil prices, as many analysts saw the exercises
and the accompanying Iranian propaganda as inflaming the
situation.
2010
Two recent
developments in particular shows that Israel is growing
increasingly concerned. First, the Israeli cabinet
decided to fund a program to provide gas masks to all
Israelis. This is an obvious preparation for the
possibility of missile attacks on Israel from Iran and/or
Iranian allies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria.
Second, on
January 12, 2010, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist was
assassinated by a remote-controlled bomb in Tehran. It is
widely assumed that Israel is behind this killing in an
apparent attempt to delay the Iranian nuclear program.
In late
January, 2010, news media reported that the U.S. was
quietly upgrading defensive missile systems, including
Patriot missiles, in the waters of the Gulf, as well on
the territory of several allied Arab nations. This move
was due to clear concern about tensions with Iran and the
deteriorating state of talks on the nuclear
issue.
Israeli
Drone Fleet
In late
February, 2010, Israel unveiled a new potential weapon in
its growing arsenal. The Heron TP, which is a
second-generation Israeli-manufactured pilotless aerial
drone capable of staying in the air for 20 hours, and
with a range that can take it into the skies over Iran.
The drone is
believed to have seen action in the recent
Gaza
War.
Iranian
plane buzzes the USS Eisenhower
On April 21,
2010, an Iranian navy Fokker F27 turboprop reconnaissance
plane flew to within 1,000 feet of the American aircraft
carrier USS Eisenhower in the Gulf of Oman. This
flyby occurred toward the beginning of Iran's military
exercises in the Gulf. This encounter came as the
rhetoric between the U.S. and Israel, on one side, and
Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah on the other side, began to
heat up over several issues. Perhaps the potentially most
dangerous point of contention is the alleged transfer of
powerful new Scud missiles from Syria.
Russia to
supply fuel rods for Iranian nuclear reactor at
Bushehr
Russian sources
associated with that nation's assistance program with
Iran's nuclear program announced that by August 21, 2010,
the fuel rods necessary to power the Bushehr nuclear
reactor will be installed. Some analysts, such as John
Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., believe that
announcement creates a deadline by which Israel will
attack the Bushehr reactor. According
to Bolton,
an Israeli strike at the Iranian reactor must come before
the nuclear material is installed, otherwise, an attack
could spread radioactive material throughout parts of the
Middle East.
Also, in
August, 2010, an
article was published by The Atlantic
magazine
which presents facts and opinions on the possibility of
an Israeli strike at Iran. The Atlantic article concludes
that there is a 50 percent likelihood that Israel will
strike the Iranian nuclear program by July,
2011.
On August 21,
2010, Iran, with Russian aid, began inserting the fuel
rods into the Bushehr reactor. Some analysts believed
that Israel would not risk an attack after August 21 for
because of the risk of serious nuclear contamination
throughout the Gulf region if the reactor were to be
destroyed. However, other analysts see evidence of war
preparations by Israel, Syria, and Iran. Clues these
analysts see include:
--Ongoing
publicity and concern in Israel over the
Gallant
Scandal,
which some Arab sources see as a smokescreen to
deflect attention away from war preparations by
Israel.
--The
presence of Iranian Revolutionary Guards chief Gen.
Mohamed Ali Jafari in Damascus, apparantly for
discussions on coordinating Syrian, Hezbollah, and
Iranian military responses to an Israeli
strike.
--Statements
made by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas
saying that direct peace talks with Israel were not in
the likely because "a big military surprise awaits the
Middle East."
Sept.
26, 2010--Iran appears to be the victim of a
concerted cyber-war attack through the so-called Stuxnet
computer virus. This virus, though found in other
countries, is concentrated in Iran, and is targeting
industrial sites, in particular the controversial Bushehr
nuclear plant. Analysts believe the virus to be the work
of a "nation-state" with the resources to create and
launch this complex virus. Obvious culprits include
Israel and the United States.
Sept. 26,
2010--Iranian forces crossed the border into northern
Iraq to strike at a Kurdish Iranian rebel group in
retaliation for a bombing inside Iran that killed 12 in a
military parade in the town of Mahabad. Iran claimed to
have killed 30 rebels on the Iraqi side of the
border.
July,
2011--Former CIA officer Rober Baer says that Israel
will attack Iran in September of 2011, prior to a
Palestinian vote, citing former Mossad chief Meir Dagan's
warnings of an Israeli attack on Iran as "no bluff."
Dagan had warned that an Israeli attack on Iran would be
foolish, and that it would start a war that would send
thousands of Iranian and Hezbollah missiles at
Israel.
December,
2011
Amid heightened
war tensions, Iran announced the capture of an American
Drone over Iranian skies. When Iran provided video
footage of an apparantly undamaged drone, speculation
arose as to a possible Iranian cyber-attack on the drone
(i.e. Iran hacked the code and/or communications of the
drone to order it to land)..
1980-1988-
Iran-Iraq War. Began with an Iraqi invasion of Iran
in Sept. 1980
1987-1988-"Tanker
War" with the United States
2009-2010-
Unrest
and civic protest
due to allegations of fraud in Iranian Presidential
Election
2012-Increased
tension with Israel and the United States over the
Stuxnet computer virus attack, the assassinations
of Iranian nuclear scientists, and the terrorist
attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria.
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